For the Windsor – Tecumseh riding, they were the victim of the Conservative party choosing the wrong leader.  O’Toole was not a strong enough leader in the eyes of Conservatives. It is because of the CPC choosing O’Toole that Maxime Bernier left the Conservative party and started the PPC in 2018.  Many of the candidates who ran for the PPC were life long Conservatives but could not support the new leader of the party.  The biggest reason that conservatives turned to the PPC was because of their platform.  This election vs 209 saw Peoples Party votes went from 1,279 for the candidate Dan Burr, to 5,927 in 2021 for Victor Green. But so much has happened since 2021 and many die hard Conservatives are returning to the party.

In the riding of Windsor – Tecumseh there wasn’t a candidate in place at the beginning   This did not help the Conservatives, as there was a PPC candidate who was well ahead in his campaign.  There is also the subject of anti-vax which had a lot to do with how people voted.

It can be best explained in this article 

Global news said:

The margin of loss for Erin O’Toole‘s Conservatives was smaller than the size of the vote for the far-right People’s Party of Canada in just over 20 ridings in the Canadian federal election.

But amid questions over O’Toole’s future as leader, political science experts caution that explaining those numbers is not as simple as assuming the PPC split the vote and cost Conservatives all of those ridings.

“If you add up the Conservative and the PPC, it finishes ahead of the Liberals. That’s assuming that every PPC voter was a Conservative voter and that’s not the case,” said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

“Now, the majority were, but not all of them. Some of them are nonvoters, they were coming out solely on anti-vax. You can’t use the simple math of one plus one equals two.”

Demographics of Windsor – Tecumseh

The age group with the largest numbers is over 65.  In 2021 there was a larger percentage of women then men.  For employment it shows the higher percentage of residents are in Sales and Service followed by Trades and Transport. 

In the 2019 Canadian Federal Election, Leo Demarce was chosen to be the CPC candidate and came in third.  CBC reported:

Windsor-Tecumseh has been an NDP stronghold since the district was first contested in 2004.

Joe Comartin  (NDP)held the riding from 2004 until 2015, when Cheryl Hardcastle took over the district for the NDP.

The results in the 2019 election show the Green Party votes growing and coming in 4th and the People’s party was 5th.  This was the first Federal election for the PPC

 

A better year for the Conservatives.  Coming in second but -6.08 votes lost and the Liberals came in third.  Jo-Anne Gignac is well known for her career in politics as a Windsor Councillor since 2003 and was the only one who put her name forward as a candidate for the Conservative party.

Gignac was quoted as saying:

“As soon as Joe Comartin said he was stepping down, this became a seat anyone could take,” says political analyst Cheryl Collier. “It’s not really about the party, it’s about the person. When you have a long-standing person who steps down, it opens things up.”

It appears she put a lot of effort into her campaign judging by her expenditures.  But the NDP with lesser expenses won

In the 2011 election results there was only a 44, 772 turnout at the ballots.  Conservative candidate Denise Ghanam did well and came in second.  

Interesting facts about this electoral riding: 

History: Comartin has held this riding since 2000, but prior to that it was generally a Liberal stronghold, having been represented by MP Mark Macguigan from 1968 to 1984, and Shaughnessy Cohen from 1993 to 1999.

Demographics: The 2011 National Household Survey says Windsor-Tecumseh has the second highest number of Iraqi and Lebanese immigrants in Canada outside Quebec

The 2008 Election showed a close percentage of votes for  both the Conservative and Liberal candidates.  But the NDP made gains at this election.  The NDP invested $67, 619  for expenditures and only $15, 626 for the Conservative candidate

According to Windsor news today in 2021:  they said:  mounting a challenge in Windsor-Tecumseh was Conservative Kathy Borrelli, a first-time candidate who is the wife of former Windsor city councillor Paul Borrelli.  She  finished third with 25.7 per cent of the vote, slightly less than the total by Tory candidate Leo DeMarce in 2019.  Unfortuanely this region has not had Tory representation in Ottawa since the party last lost the seat in 1930, as the former Essex West riding.

The People’s Party of Canada, which only polled 1.6 per cent nationally two years ago, had a stronger-than-anticipated presence with candidate Victor Green. Polls had shown the PPC getting as much as 11 per cent of the total vote in Windsor-Tecumseh. As of early Tuesday morning, Green had won 10.7 per cent of the total vote.  We have to wonder if Victor Green had run as a Conservative in this election, would Windsor Tecumseh of had their first win since 1930.